[This is an ongoing post and is updated regularly. It was first published/launched on 4 November 2016. Recent posts/updates are below. The reports of suffering become more devastating as you scroll down]
4 November 2016
The battle for Aleppo has been underway for some time, but is in all likelihood entering an even more critical and costly phase in terms of loss of human life. This post will be updated during the coming days to reflect what portends to be a potential calamity with serious implications.
Without a doubt, the parties that hold the initiative and ultimate responsibility for the consequences of this battle are the Syrian regime and the Russian forces, who seem to have identified today as the last chance for fighters and civilian alike to leave the rebel-controlled eastern part of the city. As expected, the call was not heeded as there is a complete lack of trust that any party involved will honor a safe exit for civilians. Rebels, of all varieties, had already rejected an offer to leave with their arms and vowed to remain and fight.
We will provide updates, not by the minute, as matters develop, and as the residents of east Aleppo brace for “impact” and bombs raining from the sky, and otherwise. West Aleppo residents are also expecting continued attacks and bombardment (below is a Channel 4 report from Aleppo).
Residents in eastern Aleppo are in dire need for food and medication, and will likely suffer in exponentially more devastating terms in the event of a prolonged bombardment and siege campaign.
The regional context and timing of this impending “decisive push” as some journalists in the region are calling it is significant. Some of the factors and processes that are shaping the battle for Aleppo or working in parallel with it are:
- The presidential elections in the United States are to commence and conclude in four days, on Tuesday, 8 November 2016. The battle is being propelled by a desire for a decisive take-over/advance or steadfastness/retaliation to establish ‘facts on the ground’ before the election outcome is determined.
- Mosul is under attack by nearly all parties to the Iraqi scene to control the city and oust ISIS from their largest Iraqi bastion. And the results so far speak of “success” and advancement against ISIS fighters, signaling perhaps a significant downturn in ISIS’ military prowess, and sense of invincibility. Whether the battle for Mosul does indeed prove successful in downgrading ISIS will have significant implications on the stability of both Iraq and Syria, as well as next steps.
- The Saudi-led war on, and bombardment of, Houthi rebels in Yemen continues, even if reporting on it has subsided recently—including the resulting starvation calamity. The US is directly involved in this war effort, as it is in Iraq and Syria, in a more or less direct fashion.
- With increasing involvement in Syria and Iraq, an ongoing unprecedented purge on dissent and the arrest of HDP leaders, Turkey’s post-failed coup instability continues. Turkish leaders have continued to assert their right in an even more direct role in both neighboring countries in an effort to consolidate Turkish influence there.
The rest of Syria’s territory continues to experience battles, offensives, and retreats. Millions of Syrians inside Syria and in neighboring countries are languishing in horrid conditions, but these are overshadowed by the “all about Aleppo” coverage. The chess match approach to covering Aleppo, even if it acknowledges a humanitarian cost, should not overshadow the daily suffering and deaths elsewhere.
Other factors and developments abound, and we will be highlighting them as they rise to further prominence. Your comments on what we may have missed, or contributions in the form of links and developments, are welcome at Syria@jadaliyya.com.
Stay tuned.